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E-commerce barometer: April 2025 – month-on-month stabilization at a high level, but significant year-on-year growth!
What?
The e-commerce barometer (BaseLinker Index) remained at 153 points in April 2025, the same as in March, indicating stabilization after the previous month's dynamic growth (+27%). However, considering April year-on-year, we're seeing almost 8% growth!
Why?
The sustained high index level indicates continued positive trends in online sales in Poland, with a rising average basket value and a growing share of international sales.
Who is it for?
Online store owners, e-commerce managers, marketers, agencies, and analysts working in online commerce and digital strategy.
Background:
BaseLinker Index , also known as the e-commerce barometer, is an indicator measuring the health of Polish e-commerce based on sales data from 3,000 companies using the BaseLinker platform. The index's base value was set at 100 points in January 2022.
Stabilization after the big March increase
In March 2025, the BaseLinker Index recorded a significant 27.7% increase compared to February, reaching 153 points. In April, the index remained at the same level of 153 points , indicating market stabilization after the previous dynamic growth. However, regarding the month-on-month increase or decrease itself, these numbers should be viewed with a pinch of salt, as we sometimes experience significant seasonality within a quarter or month, so increases/decreases between months can be somewhat misleading.
Development of international sales (cross-border)
The 13.3% year-on-year increase in foreign sales, which had the largest impact on the e-commerce barometer in April, indicates that Polish online stores are effectively expanding beyond the domestic market. This may be due to better integration with foreign marketplaces (e.g., Amazon, Kaufland.de, eBay) and the implementation of cross-border strategies in e-businesses through the creation of their own foreign online stores.
Here are the statistics after April:
- Sales growth in April 2025 year-on-year: +7.75% compared to April 2024 (153 points to 142 points).
- Transaction growth: +4.9% year-on-year.
- Average order value increased: +3.1% year-on-year.
- Domestic sales increased: +7.2% year-on-year.
- Cross-border sales growth: +13.1% year-on-year, representing as much as 18.08% of “total sales” (3,000 stores).
- The largest category increases occurred in the “supermarket” and “home and garden” categories.
- The month-on-month barometer value is the same as in March and amounted to 153 points.
- The number of transactions month-on-month decreased by -1.9%.
- Average order value increased: +2.3% year-on-year.
What does this mean for online store owners?
The index's stabilization at a high level suggests that the e-commerce market in Poland has reached a new level of equilibrium. This signals to online store owners to continue investing in offering development, optimizing sales processes, and expanding into foreign markets (cross-border – own store and/or marketplace).
Why is this important for online trading strategy?
The consistently high BaseLinker Index indicates the maturity of the e-commerce market in Poland. Companies should focus on further process automation, personalizing their offerings, and leveraging analytical tools to monitor and respond to changing consumer needs. The continued growth of the offering itself, the range and number of available products, also seems important.
What's next? What will the rest of spring bring?
Forecasts for the coming months remain optimistic. The approaching summer season traditionally brings new sales opportunities, particularly in categories related to gardening, recreation, and travel. Companies should prepare for increased demand by adapting their marketing and logistics strategies.
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Marcin Stadnik
e-commerce advisor
The author is a manager with extensive experience in e-commerce, sales strategy, and content marketing. He is a digital practitioner and consultant with over 15 years of experience in e-commerce projects, sales strategy, and online business development, as well as 25 years of experience in broadly defined distribution (offline and online). He specializes in creating and implementing effective solutions for online stores, supporting companies in developing their digital presence. He co-creates appropriate strategies for e-businesses, conducts audits, and oversees marketing activities—always combining analytical knowledge with market practice. He is the author and co-author of content published on the swiatcyfrowy.pl website—based on his many years of consulting, analytical, and operational experience. The materials created are intended to provide reliable, valuable knowledge that truly supports the development of online businesses. The content here is designed to address the real challenges and needs of companies operating in the e-commerce environment (the digital world).
