Contents
What?
The May 2026 e-commerce barometer shows a strong return to record levels for Polish e-commerce. The Base Index reached 180 points in May, the same level as in the very strong March. This represents a 9.6% increase compared to April.
Why?
The May data are important because they show that the April correction was a temporary slowdown following the holiday peak, not the beginning of a weakening trend. The Polish digital world is growing primarily based on the number of orders, not the value of the basket itself. This changes the way we look at sales, logistics, customer service, and the profitability of online stores.
Who is it for?
This article is for online store owners, e-commerce managers, and those responsible for marketplaces, SEO, logistics, automation, sales strategy, and cross-border development. The data is particularly important for companies wanting to verify whether their processes are keeping up with the growing number of transactions.
Background:
May 2026 showed that the Polish digital world quickly regained momentum after the April respite. The market returned to 180 points, but the growth structure is very interesting: consumers are buying more frequently, while individual orders are slightly lower. For online stores, not only sales are becoming increasingly important, but also the cost of processing a single transaction, process automation, and customer retention. At the same time, foreign sales continue to grow faster than domestic sales, confirming that cross-border is becoming one of the most important development directions.
The most important signals from the May e-commerce barometer
The May 2026 e-commerce barometer shows a market that has not only recovered from April's correction but also returned to its record high from March. This is a positive sign for the industry, but also an important reminder: increased sales don't always automatically translate into higher profits for online stores.
In May, Polish e-commerce grew primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions. Customers shopped more frequently, but the average value of a single basket was lower. For many online stores, this translates into a greater operational burden: more parcels, more inquiries, more returns, and greater pressure on sales systems.
- The Base Index reached 180 points.
- Online sales increased by 16% year-on-year.
- The number of orders increased by 17.8% year-on-year.
- The average order value decreased by 1.5% year-on-year.
- Cross-border grew by 27.8% year-on-year.
- Foreign sales accounted for 20.11% of turnover.
Expert conclusion: May's increase isn't the result of "more expensive baskets," but rather increased shopper activity. Online stores today must handle higher volumes without sacrificing quality, speed, or margins.
E-commerce Barometer May 2026 in numbers
The table below shows that May was a month of strong rebound. However, what matters most is not the index level itself, but what led to the increase.
| Indicator | May 2026 | Context | Application for online stores |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Index Value | 180 points | +9.6% compared to April | the market returned to its record level in March |
| Online sales | +16% y/y | with CPI inflation of 3.1% | the increase is real, not just price-related |
| Number of orders | +17.8% y/y | the main source of growth | Efficient handling of larger volumes is crucial |
| Average basket value | 197.4 PLN | -4.2% m/m | actions are needed to increase the basket value and margin |
| Cross-border | +27.8% y/y | more than twice as fast as domestic sales | foreign sales are a strategic growth channel |
More orders, smaller baskets – what does this mean for online stores?
The May reading clearly demonstrates a shift that could be one of the most important trends in the coming months. Consumers are active, but they are managing individual expenses more carefully. They are buying more frequently, but the average order value is lower.
For online stores, this signals that the battle for customers doesn't end with the first transaction. Loyalty, repeat business, a well-designed shopping cart, cross-selling, and effective post-purchase communication are becoming increasingly important.
What is worth paying attention to?
- whether a larger number of orders actually increases profit,
- whether the costs of packaging, delivery and customer service are rising faster than sales,
- whether the online store has well-planned cross-selling,
- whether promotions reduce the margin too much,
- whether the returns process is becoming a hidden cost of growth.
At such a moment, an e-commerce audit can be helpful , allowing you to check whether the online store is actually making money from more transactions or whether it is just increasing turnover with an increasing operational load.
May rebound after April correction
April was a natural month of slowdown following the holiday rush. May reversed this trend with a vengeance. The Base Index rose to 180 points, and the number of orders increased by 14.4% month-on-month.
This suggests that the April correction was more of a temporary market respite than the beginning of a slowdown. Demand returned in May, but it brought with it different challenges: more transactions, a smaller basket, and greater operational requirements.
A practical lesson: if an online store grows in transaction volume but relies on manual processes, bottlenecks will quickly emerge. In such an environment , integrations and automation are crucial , helping streamline the management of orders, inventory, invoices, and multiple sales channels.
Cross-border sales are growing even faster than domestic sales
The strongest element of the May reading is cross-border. Foreign sales of Polish online stores increased by 27.8% year-on-year. This is more than twice as fast as domestic sales, which also recorded a very strong result.
The share of foreign sales in total turnover was 20.11%. This means that approximately one in five zlotys in the surveyed group of Polish sellers came from abroad.
| Sales channel | Year-on-year dynamics | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic sales | +13,4% | the internal market continues to grow very solidly |
| Cross-border sales | +27,8% | is the fastest growing area of Polish e-commerce |
| Cross-border share in turnover | 20,11% | foreign sales are already a permanent pillar of revenue |
This is a crucial signal for companies that still treat foreign marketplaces as a supplement. Data shows that cross-border sales are one of the main growth areas for Polish online stores.
In this area, marketplace management becomes particularly important . Selling internationally requires control over offers, prices, inventory, descriptions, commissions, logistics, returns, and customer service in various languages.
Why is online export becoming a necessity?
Until recently, international sales were considered a supplement to many companies' core business. Today, they are increasingly becoming a key element of their development strategies.
- The domestic market is growing, but its scale is limited.
Online sales in Poland still have potential, but abroad offers access to a larger customer base. - Marketplaces lower the barrier to entry.
Sellers can test demand in new markets without building a full local infrastructure. - Automation simplifies multi-channel management.
Synchronizing orders, inventory, and offers reduces the risk of errors. - Polish companies are competitive in terms of pricing and operations.
A well-organized online store can compete effectively in European Union markets.
However, international expansion requires a plan. A well-thought-out e-commerce strategy, answering questions such as which markets to enter, which channels to choose, how to set prices, how to handle returns, and which products have the greatest potential.
What sold best in May?
May 2026 had a very pronounced seasonal component. The largest month-over-month increases were recorded in categories related to preparations for Children's Day, First Communion season, outdoor activities, and trips.
Child – Children's Day and First Communion season
The children's category benefited greatly from the calendar. Children's Day and the First Communion season increased demand for toys, educational games, consumer electronics for children, formal wear, and gift products.
In this category, it's not just price that matters, but also product availability, fast delivery, and well-planned campaigns. Online stores that only launched at the end of May may not have fully exploited the season's potential.
Sports and tourism – May Day weekend, weather and preparations for the holidays
The second strong segment was the sports and tourism category. The long May weekend, better weather, and upcoming holidays translated into greater interest in outdoor equipment, bicycles, scooters, tents, sportswear, and camping accessories.
Seasonal conclusion: May demonstrated that the calendar still holds immense importance in e-commerce. Categories that hit a specific shopping moment can significantly boost the overall index.
Why does seasonality still win?
Seasonality no longer means just promotions a few days before an event. Effective seasonal sales require advance content preparation, campaign planning, inventory availability, and product display.
In practice, this means online stores should plan for the season in advance. Especially where organic visibility is crucial, it's worth focusing on category descriptions, guides, and sales-supporting content. In this area, SEO Content Total, helping build visibility for seasonal, product, and guide phrases.
What do May data mean for online store owners?
The May 2026 e-commerce barometer shows some very specific lessons for companies operating in the digital world.
- An increase in transaction volume doesn't always translate to increased profitability. You need to analyze your margin after processing costs, shipping, returns, and commissions.
- A lower basket requires better cross-selling. Online stores should actively suggest complementary products.
- Cross-border is becoming a strategic direction. Foreign sales are growing faster than domestic sales and cannot be treated as an add-on.
- Seasonality requires advance planning. Campaigns launched too late lose some of their potential.
- Automation reduces the cost of growth. More orders without automation mean a greater risk of errors and delays.
The May increase is good news, but it shouldn't lull you into a sense of security. A higher number of orders could reveal previously unseen problems: slow service, inventory errors, poor system integration, unprofitable promotions, or poorly calculated logistics.
Where can the margin go with the increasing number of transactions?
An increase in order volume looks attractive, but only if the online store can maintain profitability. A lower basket size means that the cost of processing a single order becomes more important.
| Area | Risk | What is worth doing? |
|---|---|---|
| Logistics | more orders mean higher packaging and delivery costs | check the cost of handling one parcel |
| Promotions | Discounts increase turnover but may reduce profits | analyze the margin after promotions |
| Marketplace | commissions and advertising can limit profitability | calculate the result after all channel costs |
| Customer service | more inquiries and returns burden the team | automate repetitive processes |
In this area, AI implementations may be increasingly important. AI can support data analysis, customer service, query segmentation, and faster problem detection in the sales process.
Why is Base Index important for digital strategy?
The Base Index, an e-commerce barometer, allows for a broader perspective on the market than just the performance of a single online store. It shows sales dynamics, the number of orders, basket value, and the share of foreign sales.
This allows online store owners to determine whether their business is growing in tandem with the market, faster than the market, or significantly lagging behind. If the overall market is growing by 16% year-over-year, but a specific online store is stagnating, it's a signal that a deeper analysis is warranted.
You can read more about the index itself in the article: What is BaseLinker Index – e-commerce barometer in Poland?
What next after a strong May 2026?
The coming weeks should continue to favor seasonal categories. Sports, tourism, children, fashion, home and garden can all benefit from preparations for vacations, trips, and summer activities.
At the same time, efficiency will become increasingly important. The market is growing in transaction volume, but a lower basket requires better margin management. Companies that can combine efficient logistics, good content, structured marketplace sales, automation, and data analysis will gain an advantage.
The direction for the coming months: increasing sales isn't enough. We need to verify whether a higher number of orders actually builds profit, customer loyalty, and the stable development of the online store.
Is your online store ready for more transactions?
The May e-commerce barometer shows that Polish e-commerce has not only returned to record levels, but has done so thanks to increased customer activity. This is a positive sign for the market, but also a challenge for businesses.
More orders mean greater pressure on logistics, customer service, warehousing, sales systems, and margin control. Cross-border is growing rapidly, but requires good organization. Seasonal categories offer opportunities for rapid growth, but only if activities are planned in advance.
May 2026 shows that online presence alone isn't enough. What matters is the speed of response, the quality of processes, the ability to work with data, and the willingness to scale sales without losing profitability.
